The A-share market performed strongly in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 15.6%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 18.2%, and the ChiNext Index increasing 21.5%. Looking ahead to 2026, we believe the A-share market will continue to maintain a steady growth trend based on the following factors:
China's economic growth is expected to remain around 5.5% in 2026, with consumption, investment, and exports all contributing. In particular, consumption recovery will be an important driver of economic growth, and with increasing household income and restored consumer confidence, the consumer market is expected to maintain good growth.
Regulators will continue to introduce policy measures to support the real economy, especially increasing support for technological innovation and green development. At the same time, capital market reforms will continue to deepen, and the full implementation of the registration system will inject new vitality into the market.
With economic recovery, corporate performance will gradually improve. Companies in strategic emerging industries such as high technology, new energy, and biomedicine are expected to achieve better performance growth.
Investment opportunities in the A-share market in 2026 will be mainly concentrated in the following directions:
Risk Warning: Global economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, inflationary pressure, and other factors may have a certain impact on the market. Investors should remain rational, adopt a diversified investment strategy, and focus on long-term value.
The bond market performed steadily in 2025, with 10-year treasury bond yields remaining between 2.5%-2.8%. Looking ahead to 2026, the bond market will be affected by the following factors:
As central banks around the world enter an interest rate cut cycle, the People's Bank of China may also adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, which will be beneficial to the bond market.
Inflation pressure is expected to remain moderate in 2026, with CPI growth expected to be between 2.0%-2.5%, creating a favorable environment for the bond market.
Credit risks still exist in some industries and enterprises. Investors should pay attention to the credit quality of credit bonds to avoid credit risks.
Investment strategy for the bond market in 2026:
The RMB/USD exchange rate showed two-way fluctuations in 2025, appreciating 1.2% for the full year. Looking ahead to 2026, the RMB exchange rate will be affected by the following factors:
If the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates while the People's Bank of China cuts rates to a relatively smaller extent, this will be conducive to the stability of the RMB exchange rate.
China's continued economic recovery will provide support for the RMB exchange rate.
With the further opening of China's financial market, international capital inflows will increase, which will be beneficial to the RMB exchange rate.
We expect the RMB/USD exchange rate to fluctuate between 6.8-7.2 in 2026, maintaining overall stability.
For corporate and individual investors, attention should be paid to exchange rate risks, rational arrangement of foreign exchange asset allocation, and avoidance of losses caused by exchange rate fluctuations.